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Hillsborough County

Alternative #1: Overview of Need Summary Indicator

As a summary indicator of local affordable housing need, the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse can provide the number of households that are low-income (incomes below 80% of area median) and severely cost-burdened (paying 50% or more for mortgage costs or rent) for each county and jurisdiction. The Clearinghouse provides estimates and projections of the number of these households by tenure for the years 2013-2040.

This indicator encompasses a broad range of households likely experiencing distress because of their housing costs. With their low incomes, the large portion of income taken up by housing costs is likely to limit these households' ability to afford other necessities.

Moreover, the 80% of median income figure is a traditional measure of eligibility for programmatic housing assistance. For example, all beneficiaries of the federal public housing program and federal HOME program must have incomes below this amount.

The need indicator can serve as an approximation of the total number of households that would benefit from some type of housing assistance, particularly if homeless and migrant households are added. Such assistance could include the construction of new affordable housing units, but it could also include the provision of subsidies to make current units more affordable.

In addition to this summary level of information, we believe a more detailed understanding of the presence of low-income and cost-burdened households can help local governments plan for and target assistance. The following discusses supplemental tables that provide this additional level of detail.

Note, however, that the number does not include homeless individuals and families, as they are not included in household enumerations. It also does not include many migrant farmworker households, missed by Census counts.

AHNA Affordable Housing Need Summary 2010-2040
Number of severely cost burdened (50%+) households with income less than 80% AMI by tenure
Place Tenure 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 20352040
Hillsborough Owner 30970 34938 38285 42256 45944 49186 52202
Hillsborough Renter 52247 57402 62003 67528 72415 76638 80736
Notes:  Click here to get household projections by tenure, age of householder, income, and cost burden.
Sources:   Not Available.

Alternative #2: Detailed Need Tables

While the summary indicator can provide a measure of overall housing need, targeting housing assistance appropriately requires more detail about income variation within the total number of low-income, severely cost-burdened households, for two reasons:

1) If needs are to be addressed through construction of new units, income variation within low-income households means that not all new rent- or price-restricted units will be affordable to all households. For example, a household at 30% AMI would still pay more than half of its income for rent in an apartment with rent set for households with incomes of 60% AMI.

2) A number of housing programs, such as the Low Income Housing Tax Credit and, in most cases, Section 8 Housing Vouchers, set income limits below 80% of area median.

Therefore, we can also provide supplemental tables with more detail on the income categories that make up the summary need indicator.

Affordable housing Need Detail 2010-2040. Number of severely cost burdened(50%+) households with income less than 80% AMI by tenure and income level
Tenure: Owner
Place Household Income as % of AMI 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 20352040
Hillsborough 30% AMI or less 12744 14414 15809 17479 19056 20432 21701
Hillsborough 30.1-50% AMI 9022 10229 11261 12521 13681 14656 15541
Hillsborough 50.1-80% AMI 9204 10295 11215 12256 13207 14098 14960
Hillsborough Total below 80% AMI 30970 34938 38285 42256 45944 49186 52202
Notes:  Click here to get household projections by tenure, age of householder, income, and cost burden.
Sources:   Not Available.

Affordable housing Need Detail 2010-2040. Number of severely cost burdened (50%+) households with income less than 80% AMI by tenure and income level
Tenure: Renter
Place Household Income as % of AMI 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 20352040
Hillsborough 30% AMI or less 29654 32390 34830 37718 40271 42538 44789
Hillsborough 30.1-50% AMI 15851 17498 18965 20737 22308 23647 24928
Hillsborough 50.1-80% AMI 6742 7514 8208 9073 9836 10453 11019
Hillsborough Total below 80% AMI 52247 57402 62003 67528 72415 76638 80736
Notes:  Click here to get household projections by tenure, age of householder, income, and cost burden.
Sources:   Not Available.

Projected Increase in Cost-Burdened Households

Another table that might be useful in planning is the projected increase in severely cost-burdened, low-income households over multi-year periods. Governments could choose to seek construction of units to meet this growth in low-income households that would not be able to afford housing without assistance. While this would not address the existing need, it would keep the affordable housing shortage from worsening.

Growth in severely cost burdened (50%+) households with income less than 80% AMI by tenure and income level
Tenure: Owner
Place Household Income as % of AMI 2010-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040Total
Hillsborough 30% AMI or less 1333 1698 1580 1519 1380 1242 7419
Hillsborough 30.1-50% AMI 960 1261 1189 1122 974 864 5410
Hillsborough 50.1-80% AMI 871 1124 979 916 892 843 4754
Hillsborough Total below 80% AMI 3164 4083 3748 3557 3246 2949 17583
Notes:  Click here to get household projections by tenure, age of householder, income, and cost burden.
Sources:   Not Available.

Growth in severely cost burdened (50%+) households with income less than 80% AMI by tenure and income level
Tenure: Renter
Place Household Income as % of AMI 2010-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040Total
Hillsborough 30% AMI or less 2124 2960 2671 2426 2327 2232 12616
Hillsborough 30.1-50% AMI 1287 1781 1660 1502 1359 1261 7563
Hillsborough 50.1-80% AMI 605 847 808 738 626 555 3574
Hillsborough Total below 80% AMI 4016 5588 5139 4666 4312 4048 23753
Notes:  Click here to get household projections by tenure, age of householder, income, and cost burden.
Sources:   Not Available.

Conclusion

The initial AHNA needs summary figure (Alternative #1) of all low-income, severely cost-burdened households provides one measure of affordable housing needs in a local community. With additional data, however, county and local governments can make more informed decisions about housing assistance needs and programs. Projections of future increases in severely cost-burdened households and construction needs can guide cities and counties in preventing growth in the local affordable housing need. More detailed information about income can help counties and cities find ways to address the existing need with the various state and federal housing programs designed to serve particular income levels.